"We must continue to work hard to ensure that a sustainable recovery comes indeed in the first half of 2010. But, despite the recovery, unemployment will continue to rise in 2010 and perhaps in the more developed economies even in 2011," he said in an interview with the Greek Kathimerini newspaper.
He warned against taking the recovery for granted, saying risk still remained. "The basic short-term risk is for the recovery to stop, something that could be caused by a series of negative developments," he said.
"A possible premature exit from a loose fiscal and monetary policy constitute a risk, if fiscally supported growth is erroneously seen as a sustained recovery." He said another key concern is that higher oil prices could hinder recovery.
IMF chief sees unemployment rising in 2011
Posted by imdurrani Labels: IMF, world economy, world financeTDAP invites EoI for web portal
Posted by imdurrani Labels: business finance, investment, Pak Economy, pakistanMonday August 31, 2009
Monday August 31, 2009
There is merchandise that should be bought during Ramazan as is the case every year even if I have to depend on the credit card. Perhaps I will economise after the month is over in order to compensate for the budget deficit, but we are not ready to change our habits during Ramazan. Customers throng cafes and restaurants, staying up late, smoking shishas (water pipes), drinking tea or eating sweets and delicacies while chatting and exchanging news. But in the Gaza Strip, where an Israeli offensive killed hundreds and flattened vast swathes of the territory at the new year, Ramazan reminds people of the severe poverty they live in as a result of an Israeli blockade. Rashad Abu Aisha said this is the worst Ramazan her family has ever seen, with widespread shortages and skyrocketing prices at the local market. The war has added so much to our grief; it s more than we can bear, he said. Even those whose homes and loved ones were spared by the fighting have faced rolling shortages and the highest prices in memory, as they have had to rely on goods smuggled in through tunnels from Egypt. As a result, the festive Ramazan lamps that line the streets of cities across the Muslim world are, in Gaza, largely confined to store-fronts. Sami, a 40-year-old father of seven, says the little money he is able to scrape together will have to go for supplies for the coming school year. People in Gaza never know when the next disaster is going to come and how they are going to deal with it, he says. Most people are without work and without a source of income. Shopowners, meanwhile, say that while they are able to fill their shelves with smuggled goods they have few customers. Generally speaking, consumers in the region have complained of higher prices of even basic foods. I have noticed an increase in the prices of staple foods, the foods we use in our everyday meals, such as rice, vegetables, bread and meats. They are raising the prices on things that we need the most, said Umm Khalifa in Dubai. I think the rise in prices is unjustified since they know that during Ramazan we consume more so this way they are creating more pressure on households. This is common every Ramazan and is, in part, due to higher demand. And as always, this prompts governments to take measures to clamp down on price hikes.
NIB posts profit; Bank Alfalah down by 39pc
Posted by imdurrani Labels: Banking, business finance, Pak Economy, pakistanMonday August 31, 2009
Despite significant increase in fund cost, we expect bank s NII to grow by 6pc YoY on the back of 38pc YoY increase in interest income , said analyst Abdul Shakur at InvestCap Research. On QoQ basis, the bottomline is expected to decline by 31pc YoY to Rs2.89b (EPS Rs2.69) in 2QCY09. Provisions, which remain the concerning factor for NBP as being the public sector entity, are expected to increase by 12pc YoY with further deterioration in the asset quality. NPLs are expected to increase by 20pc in 1HCY09 (NPLs to loan ratio expected at 14.1pc). Moreover, provision for Dewan group would further suppress bank s bottomline as estimated exposure of Rs5bn of Dewan s group is expected to be provided going forward. Due to lower dividends and equity gains, the non interest income of the bank is expected to remain dry, to decline by 2pc YoY. Admin charges are expected to grow by 27pc YoY resulting in inflating cost to income ratio to 42pc compared to 30pc in 1QCY09. No cash of stock dividend with the result is expected according to the experts.
SINGAPORE (AFP) - Assets held by the world s 100 biggest Islamic banks grew 66 percent in 2008 from the previous year despite the financial turmoil that clobbered mainstream lenders, a report said. The top 100 Islamic banks held assets totalling 580 billion US dollars last year, up from $350b in 2007, according to an annual report by The Asian Banker, a magazine for financial professionals. In the same period, Asia s 300 biggest banks saw their assets rise by a much slower 13.4 percent, it said. A financial storm sparked by a crisis in the US housing market swept across the world late last year. Its impact spilled over into the general economy and sent several countries into recession. Prominent US investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed into bankruptcy, while several other major Western banks suffered massive losses. Despite the financial turmoil in late 2008 that crippled so many large Western institutions, Islamic banks have continued to grow in prominence and size, the magazine said in a press statement. Emmanuel Daniel, the magazine s president and chief executive, added: Islamic finance has seen an incredible surge in popularity, based on stronger regulatory regimes and a better international understanding of its dynamics. Monday, August 31, 2009
KARACHI - Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), in its FY09 financial results, posted profit of Rs 27.7b (EPS Rs33.4), up by 41pc versus earnings of Rs19.7b (EPS 23.8) in FY08. The company has also announced 20pc bonus shares and Rs 3 per share final cash dividend with the results taking cumulative cash payout to Rs 13 per share in FY09. According to the FY09 financial statements, total receivables of the company have reached Rs 27.8b compared to last year s of Rs13.2b. Sui Northern Gas (SNGPL) remained the major debtor with Rs13.6b (in FY08 it was Rs5.1b) followed by Sui Southern Gas (SSGC) Rs 8.8b (in FY08 it was Rs 2.7b), Wapda Rs 3.5b against Rs3b in FY08 and Attock Refinery (ARL) Rs 1.8b which was Rs 2.2b in FY08. This is due to prevailing circular debt situation, driven mainly by power sector. As a result, total cash position of the company has greatly suffered. Total cash of the company is standing at Rs 14.6b (Rs17.6 per share) compared to Rs 21.8b (Rs26.3 per share). The company believes that the government would settle this amount soon.Monday, August 31, 2009
According to the results, the total cash payout stood at 39pc versus 2-year historical average payout of 55pc mainly due to persisting circular debt trap in the energy chain. The growth in company s bottom line was mainly supported by 35pc revenue growth. Though oil revenues (crude oil +NGL+ condensate) of PPL dropped by 9pc amid lower realised crude oil prices (approx. $58 per barrel compared to $85 per barrel in FY08), gas revenues rose by significant 43pc on the back of improved wellhead gas prices of Sui and Kandhkot fields (higher by 56pc YoY). Thus, sharp decline in oil prices during FY09 did not affect the overall revenues due to higher share of gas in its hydro-carbon as gas prices are fixed for 6-months (time lag impact). Secondly, 20pc devaluation of Pakistani rupee against dollar which improved rupee based revenues. During FY09, though oil production remained flat, however, gas sales dropped by 3pc (average 955mmcfd) mainly due to decline in production from its famous Sui gas field. Interestingly, the affect of higher field expenditure was mitigated through increase in other income.
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