Saturday July 04, 2009

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Saturday July 04, 2009

KARACHI: Bearish sentiment was witnessed on the interbank market on Friday as the rupee shed two paisa against dollar for buying and selling at 81.52 and 81.57, dealers said. Persisting demand for dollars did not allow the rupee come out the weak spells in terms of the US currency, they said.

In the Asian final session euro struggled back from its lowest levels in a week, after a wave of sell orders compounded losses made on bleak US jobs numbers, and it found support as some investors judged it may have slipped too far. Dealers said euro hit stop-loss sell orders around $1.3980, and possible hedge fund selling, in the crossover between late US trade and the start of the Asian day, sending it down to $1.3927 on electronic trading platform EBS.

Open Market Rates: The rupee fell versus dollar dropping 15 paisa for buying at 81.40 and 20 paisa for selling at 81.60, dealers said. The rupee, however, gained 64 paisa versus euro for buying and selling at Rs 112.98 and Rs 113.98, they said.

Buying Rs 81.52
Selling Rs 81.57

Interbank Closing Rates: Interbank Closing Rates For Dollar On Friday.

Open Buying Rs 81.40
Open Selling Rs 81.60

(BRecorder)

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Saturday July 04, 2009

TOKYO: The euro struggled back from its lowest levels in a week on Friday, after a wave of sell orders compounded losses made on bleak US jobs numbers, and it found support as some investors judged it may have slipped too far. Dealers said the euro hit stop-loss sell orders around $1.3980, and possible hedge fund selling, in the crossover between late US trade and the start of the Asian day, sending it down to $1.3927 on electronic trading platform EBS.

The euro and currencies such as the Australian dollar, which have benefited from investor hopes for economic turnaround, had already weakened on Thursday after data showed US employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected.

But analysts said market players then bought the euro back on Friday, helping it off the lows, although it was still weaker than before the employment data and investors were still dismayed the jobs numbers spelled a slower recovery than hoped.

The euro stood at $1.4002 on EBS, after shedding more than 1 percent on Thursday. It had hit a one-month high above $1.4200 earlier in the week. The euro dropped as far as 133.58 yen on Friday, extending a fall of nearly 2 percent on Thursday, but had edged back to 134.44 yen later in Asian trade.

It had also faced selling pressure after comments from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet the previous day that euro-zone activity would likely remain weak for the rest of the year. The ECB left its benchmark refinancing interest rate at a record low of 1 percent, as expected.

The dollar was steady against the yen at 96.00 yen, holding well within a range of 93.50-100 that has limited it since mid-April. With the jobs data out of the way, traders said focus was shifting to the Group of Eight meeting on July 8-10 and the US corporate earnings season that kicks off next week.

"Market players will watch China's comment on an alternative global currency. This is something that could take about 50 to 100 years, but the country's comment could still affect the market, even very briefly," said Tsutomu Soma, a senior manager in the foreign securities department at Okasan Securities.


(Reuters)

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Saturday July 04, 2009

SYDNEY: Australian vehicles sales surged in June to their third highest volume ever while activity in the service sector boasted the first expansion in 15 months, evidence that policy stimulus was fuelling consumer demand. The upbeat industry reports only added to expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would keep rates steady at a record low of 3.0 percent at its July policy meeting next week.

"The data is consistent with a broadening recovery and, if anything, suggests the momentum is actually accelerating," said Brian Redican, a senior economist at Macquarie. "It shows rates are low enough to fuel demand and takes pressure off the RBA to do much more," he added. The central bank has cut interest rates by 425 basis points since September in an effort to cushion the economy from the worst of the global fallout.

The Labour government has done its part with over A$52 billion ($41 billion) of hand-outs and infrastructure pledges. Included in the stimulus was an extended tax break for small businesses to buy new vehicles, and that looked to have had the desired effect.

Figures from the Australian Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries showed new vehicle sales jumped 11.8 percent in seasonally adjusted terms in June, from May. Vehicle demand is typically strong in June as dealers cut prices to clear stock for the end of the financial year.

Unadjusted sales rose 36.3 percent to 102,847. That was down 3.5 percent on last June's record, but still the third-highest monthly volume ever. It was also a big turnaround from the lows suffered in April, when sales were down 24 percent on the year.

"That's an amazing result," said Macquarie's Redican. "A lot of these sales could also count toward business investment, which has been one of the weakest sectors." The data provided some underlying support for the Australian dollar. High-yield currencies fell following weak US jobs data, but the Australian dollar later inched up even though it remained well below 80 US cents. The strength of car sales fuelled hopes that a pickup in retail demand seen in May extended through to June as well. Government data out earlier this week showed retail sales rose a healthy 1 percent in May, twice the market forecast.

Adding to the optimism was a survey of around 200 companies in the service sector which found a broad-based improvement in everything from financial to property, retail and health.

The Australian Industry Group (AiG)-Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index (PSI) leaped 10.3 points in June to 50.2, taking it above the 50 level that marks the threshold between growth and contraction. "Improving conditions in the services sector are consistent with other recent news which suggests that the economy may well side-step a severe recession in 2009, despite the negative headwinds from the global economic meltdown," said John Peters, a senior economist at CBA. The survey's index of sales climbed 16.1 points to 55.2, the highest reading since the start of 2008, while its measure of new orders climbed 16.6 points to 51.5, holding out hope the recovery would prove sustainable.

There was also better news on jobs, with the index of employment rising 2.5 points to 48.5, the highest reading in a year. The service sector is easily the biggest employer in Australia and the improvement might bode well for the official labour report for June that is due next week. Actual job losses have been remarkably subdued so far this year but the unemployment rate has still risen to a five-year high of 5.7 percent, making it a major threat to consumer demand.


(Reuters)

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Saturday July 04, 2009

KARACHI: Pre-Ramazan rise in prices of essential commodities is expected to take place much earlier than usual because of the gigantic surge in prices of petroleum products. Prices of fruits and vegetables have already surged in the range of Rs 10 to 15 per kg in the wholesale market, according to fruit and vegetable dealers in new Sabzi Mandi.

Apprehensive traders said that major items will be pulses and wheat flour whose soaring rates would in turn increase the cost of living, particularly for the poor, much before the advent of Ramazan because of the government's 'stiff' petroleum policy. "Demand of essential items goes on increasing before Ramazan, particularly of pulses, wheat flour, and related by-products," traders said.

Inland transportation cost has immediately skyrocketed with petroleum price increase due to which sugar rate has so far mounted to Rs 4320 per 100 kg sack, from Rs 4260 in the mass market, they added. They said that 50 paisa per kg of sugar has increased immediately which is likely to reach Re 1 in the next few days in the wholesale market. Retail price of sugar is Rs 45 per kg.

Similarly, wheat flour price has posted Rs 30 increase per 100 kg bag until now, which is available at Rs 2250, according to traders, while millers say that increase of Re 1 per kg in wheat flour price has so far taken place in some parts of the city.

The Chairman of Pakistan Flour Mills Association (PFMA), Johar Ali Qandhari, said that increase of Rs 30 to Rs 40 per 100 kg sack of wheat grain has occurred immediately because of petroleum prices surge. To mills now wheat grain is available at Rs 2425 per 100 kg.

Wheat shortage has also occurred because of disagreement between millers and transporters over new cartage rates. However, largely they have now been agreed upon, he said. He pointed out that electricity crisis is another prominent issue which is likely to give rise to the cost of wheat flour production when the government removes subsidy. There is also a fear of a dangerous surge in flour prices.

Qandhari urged the government to set up a permanent price fixation system to protect the consumers' rights in such chaotic situation, and said that everyone would try to multiply profit on the pretext of oil price hike. Wheat flour in retail market is being sold as [fine quality] at Rs 32 per kg, [2.5 no flour] at Rs 30 per kg, [flour chaki] at Rs 32 per kg.

Impact of petroleum prices will come in a week's period, said General Secretary of Karachi Retail Grocers Group, Fareed Qureshi. Sugar price in the wholesale market has immediately mounted by 50 paisa per kg, said chairman of Karachi Wholesalers Grocers Association, Anis Majeed, adding that increase in transportation cost would soon pass on to end-consumers.

Increase of Re 1 per kg in prices of all varieties of pulses is also going to occur shortly, which he termed "the direct and immediate impact" of the recent rise in petroleum prices. He said that the supply of pulses to Karachi would be smooth for the Ramazan to meet the demand.

He condemned the price rise of petroleum products, saying that it would cripple the consumers' purchasing power. Rs 57/litre of petrol is also high for common people, Anis Majeed said. Pulses prices have already surged in July as compared to June this year. Prices of mash washed [I and II] went up to Rs 95 per kg from Rs 77 and Rs 87 per kg from Rs 72 respectively.

Prices of mash peel black mounted to Rs 66 per kg from Rs 57, Kabuli chana white [I and II] to Rs 92 per kg from Rs 84 and Rs 66 from Rs 60 respectively. Price of Mong washed [I and II] to Rs 60 from Rs 53 and Rs 50 from Rs 47 per kg respectively. Prices of moong whole-I increased to Rs 97 per kg from Rs 96 and Mash whole Rs 75 from 73 correspondingly.


(BRecorder)

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Saturday July 04, 2009

LAHORE: Personnel from US State Department, USAID, and US Congressman Jim Grayson have stated that the people in US are extremely concerned about the welfare of the people of Pakistan and believed that job creation through microfinance is a very important pillar to economically strengthen the country.

A delegation of US government officials met with the various leaders of Pakistan's microfinance industry as well as a group of female micro-entrepreneurs. Kashf Foundation, USAID, and Khushhali Bank jointly organised the event.

US Congress member Jim Grayson accompanied by his staff members, and personnel from the US State Department and USAID, had discussions with Roshaneh Zafar, the Founder and MD of Kashf Foundation and CEO of Kashf Microfinance Bank. She along with her colleagues explained various aspects of their fourteen-year long experience of replicating the Grameen Bank model as well as its adaptation to the Pakistani socioeconomic environment.

Later, US Congress member Jim Grayson met with women microfinance clients of Kashf Foundation and candidly inquired about their different experiences in availing the financial services offered by the Foundation and congratulated them on their perseverance.-PR


(BRecorder)

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Saturday July 04, 2009

KARACHI: Pakistan's economy is in desperate search for a lubricant, as the latest data reveals that credit to private sector nearly zeroed in the first eleven months of fiscal year 2008-09 (it is actually in negative territory as per weekly data released by SBP), as the government borrowing crowded out private sector credit off-take in an attempt to straighten its books with the central bank.

Data released by the State Bank of Pakistan shows that private sector borrowed just Rs 2.8 billion between Jul-May FY09 - nearly nothing compared with Rs 391 billion borrowed in the same period last year. A closer look reveals that farming and forestry sector, on which the government quite heavily needs to rely on, actually paid back Rs 1.9 billion of its debt in 11MFY09, as against borrowings of Rs 8.4 billion in the year ago period.

One might question that since when debt repayment became such a bad omen - but when contemporary economies need a wheel, credit is their major driver. Meanwhile, coinciding with the negative growth in manufacturing output last year, the sector saw borrowings drop by nearly three-quarters to Rs 44 billion in 11MFY09.

One of the major hits there was the debt repayment of Rs 20.7 billion by the textile sector - the backbone of our exports - compared with Rs 81.8 billion of net borrowings in 11MFY08. This is partially explained by fewer export orders, thanks to global meltdown, rest is attributed to stringent banks' loaning conditions in an effort to clean their assets portfolio and also textile manufacturers' inability to generate enough cash flows to meet rising credit cost.

Bucking the general trend, however, were borrowers involved in power, gas, and water supply businesses, who took Rs 39.7 billion worth of fresh loans in 11MFY09 - though still down nearly 36 percent from about Rs 62 billion in the corresponding period last year.

This, thankfully, at least comes in line with the government's efforts to produce more electricity - but one should be mindful that the figures also partly include loans taken for generators and UPS's etc. However, going forward, once the new projects come online to meet demand supply gap, this trend would not continue.

During the period, consumer financing tanked sharply as well, as higher interest rate regime deterred clean consumers to take new loans, while recessionary fear of low future earnings compelled bankers to virtual halt on fresh disbursement, if any.

Hence, consumers paid back Rs 61.2 billion in 11MFY09 as against net debt of Rs 14 billion in the year ago period. Part of this drop, includes the repayments of Rs 24 billion taken in auto financing, Rs 8 in credit cards and the mortgage repayment of Rs 4.3 billion.

Meanwhile, the government continued to gobble up credit from scheduled banks - a mammoth Rs 336 billion in 11MFY09 as against the repayment of Rs 130 billion in the corresponding period a year ago. This mainly stemmed from its desire to cut on its central bank debt in order to meet IMF's conditionalities.

This overall grim situation is evident from the negative manufacturing growth, which in turn induced decline in services sector growth momentum. The dearth of investment owing to bleak security situation and high interest rate regime with inflation gradually tapering down, now calls for an expansionary monetary policy.

Moreover, the halt in the privatisation process and low FDIs owing to global meltdown also compels the fiscal side to run a stimulus package. Although, these policies are not in line with the stringent IMF conditions, it seems no other solution is on cards to give wings to the economy.


(BRecorder)

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Saturday July 04, 2009

ISLAMABAD: 'Flexible Credit Line' is a new IMF instrument, created in April 2009, which seeks to provide large and upfront financing to members with very strong fundamentals and policies. According to IMF website, "access to FCL is restricted to those members that meet strict qualification criteria, drawings under it are not tied to policy goals agreed with the country".

Mexico received 47 billion dollars under FCL, to buttress strong economies against fallout from the global crisis. Mexico's major trading partner is the US and its exports have suffered due to the recession in US. This facility is for one year.


(BRecorder)

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Saturday July 04, 2009

ISLAMABAD: The Federal Board of Revenue has finally decided to fully enforce Value Added Tax (VAT) regime at the entire retail stage including big retailers, retail outlets, manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, suppliers and shopkeepers from July 1, 2010.

In this connection, the FBR has constituted a new team of top sales tax officials having vast experience in VAT related issues to bring the entire retail sector within the VAT mode.

According to the FBR instructions issued to the field formations on Friday, Sales Tax Act 1990 was enforced from November 1996. The Sales Tax Act is designed for a classical Value Added Tax (VAT) model. At present VAT is being collected on imports and supplies by manufactures, wholesalers, distributors and big retailers.

The Third Schedule of the Sales Tax Act 1990 also provides for levy of VAT on retail stage of certain specified supplies including eg cigarettes. The FBR is mindful of the fact that a large number of transactions in the economy taking place at the retail stage.

While existing legislation enables for levy of VAT at retail stage, its practical enforcement and collection has faced enormous problems for last more than a decade. Presently, retailers with a threshold of Rs 5 million are required to be registered.

The need to extend VAT to the entire retail stage, allowing adjustment of tax paid at earlier stage, can hardly be over-emphasised. Foregoing in view, the existing process re-engineering team of Sales Tax Wing is directed to come up with a comprehensive plan to fully enforce the VAT at retail stage by July 2010.

The process re-engineering team has been re-constituted: Zafar-ul-Majeed Member FBR, Abrar Ahmed Khan Chief Sales Tax, Shafqat Mehmood Collector Sales Tax RTO, Lahore, Abdul Hameed Memon Additional Collector, LTU, Islamabad and Dr Iftikhar Ahmed, Deputy Collector, Customs Valuation, Karachi.


(BRecorder)

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Saturday July 04, 2009

ISLAMABAD: Cotton production may exceed the target set for 2009-10 fiscal year (13.36 million bales) by about 9.4 percent to 14.6 million bales following 40 percent increased sowing in Sindh and usage of BT seed for the current financial year.

According to the well placed sources in the Ministry of Food and Agriculture, the production of cotton may increase by 1.24 million bales more than the target of 13.36 million bales set for 2009-10, although the usage of BT seed is not permitted in the country.

The sources revealed that as the government had banned the sowing of rice in the Sindh as area under cotton had been increased by 40 percent. Similarly, an increase of 20 percent had been recorded in cotton sowing area of Punjab Province, which would be 88 million acres, they said.

They revealed that in the absence of certified seed and government's failure to introduce BT cotton last year, Pakistan's cotton production for 2008- 09 had witnessed a shortfall of 2.8 million cotton bales. They said that lack of expertise in fighting cotton virus and heavy rainfall, around 20 percent crop in Punjab and interior Sindh had been affected.

The sources further said that against the set target of 11 million bales, Punjab had produced seven million bales, witnessing a decrease of four million bales, while Sindh fall short of its set target by 0.5 million bales. Due to failure in the achievement of target, cotton worth Rs 25 billion was imported last year to meet the above gap, spending a lot of foreign exchange. If this year the set target could be achieved, foreign exchange worth Rs 30 billion could be saved.

The sources said that cotton production remained 2.7 million bales below the government's target of 14.1 million bales during the outgoing fiscal on account of non-supply of better quality seed, short supply of quality inputs and insufficient water supply. They said that the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee, keeping in view the situation, had revised the target to the level of 12.5 million bales in 2008-09, but the production was less than the revised target.

Average production last fiscal year remained 21.20 maunds per acre, while 40 maunds per acre production is expected in Punjab and Sindh due to use of BT cotton seed. Pakistan is the only major cotton producing country where certified BT cotton seed had not been introduced, as its production was more than other seed varieties, the sources said, adding the country was importing over three million bales to meet the demand of the local textile industry.


(BRecorder)

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Saturday July 04, 2009

KARACHI: The Task Force on Maritime Industry (TFMI), constituted by federal government, has recommended to the Ministry of Ports and Shipping reduction in the wet charges at Karachi Port by around $10,200, or 40.47 percent, and $9,400, or 38.52 percent, at Port Qasim.

Moreover, the task force has supported a "maximum limit" of $15,000 on wet charges at the local ports, considered to be the most expensive in the region. The wet charges include port dues, pilotage, tuggage, berth hire, etc, and are paid by shipping lines to the port operator.

The move is part of a drive launched by the Ministry of Ports and Shipping to bring the local port charges down in a bid to achieve competitiveness in exports and economies of scale at home.

TFMI, comprising maritime experts like Naeem Sarfraz, Mohammed A Rajpar, former Justice Shaiq Usmani, Dr Zia Rizvi, Captain Changez Khan Niazi and Rear Admiral Arshad Munir, has made these recommendations on the basis of "comprehensive data" gathered from various shipping lines, including United Arab Shipping Company (UASC), Maersk Line MECL Service and CMA-CGM EPIC service which route through the ports of Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, Pakistan, India, etc.

According to TFMI's comparative study, current port charges for A-2 type vessel, of 32,534 GRT, are $24,400 at Port Qasim, and $25,200 at Karachi Port, against the $20,100 of Neva Shiva, $6,400 of Colombo Port, $5,800 of Jebel Ali, $4,400 of Khor Fakkan, and $3,000 of Sohar-Muscat.

A bigger vessel, of 50,968 GRT from Maersk Line MECL Service, carrying 5,500 TEUs directly to US from Port Qasim pays $39,506 to the port operator as per call port wet charges, the task force ascertained. It also found that per call port charges at Port Qasim for a CMA-CGM EPIC ship, of 73,157 GRT, voyaging directly to Europe, stands at $56,121.

Terming the local pilotage and tuggage charges as "lopsided", the TFMI observed that a hired tug of 65-ton BPM AZD costs the port $7,500 ($1,500 for per ship handling) during its four to five movements a day. Less number of moves would take the per act cost to around $2,000.

KPT and PQA charge around $970 per inward or outward movement, in which two tugs are used to push the vessel into or outside the port, the task force said. Placing the per act pilotage cost of a vessel at around $350 to $500, the TFMI calculated the one-way pilotage charges for CMA-CGM vessels at $9,510 each for inward and outward pilotage services. "Port dues at Port Qasim of $0.32 per GRT equates $23,410 per call for CMA-CGM vessels," the task force observed.

According to TFMI's "simple calculation", if these vessels in a single call bring and load about 1,000 TEUs to and from Pakistani ports they have to pay $56 per TEU as port call charges. "If you compare the same with Jebel Ali, then it is $6 per TEU," the task force said.

The task force has apprised the government that no shipping line ever pays these exorbitant charges out of its pocket, and certainly adds the same in the freight rates. "It is recommended that we should rationalise the port call charges (wet) and place a maximum limit on the charges," TFMI recommended.

"For example, the maximum charge of the vessel should be $15,000 per call of 24 hours," it said. According to TFMI, if implemented, the proposed port tariff regime would encourage shipping lines to bring bigger vessels in, while the reduced cost of port dues on freight would result in reduction in freight levels of Pakistan's imports and exports.

Business Recorder, however, learnt that these recommendations had come from one member of the Task Force, which was yet to develop consensus on a mutually agreed formula for rationalisation of port tariffs. With traders and port users expecting at least 30 percent decrease in port charges, the Ministry of Ports and Shipping on June 18, 2009 had given 30 days to the port and terminal operators to table their proposals on the subject.


(BRecorder)

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Saturday July 04, 2009

LONDON: The dollar climbed against the euro Friday after eurozone retail figures slipped back into a rut and as fresh worries about the health of the US economy supported the ‘safe-haven’ greenback. In late afternoon trading here, the European single currency weakened to 1.3987 dollars from 1.3997 dollars in New York late on Thursday. Against the Japanese currency, the dollar also edged up to 96.00 yen from 95.94 yen on Thursday while the euro rose to 134.44 yen from 134.30 previously. Trading activity was limited however because US currency markets were closed for a public holiday ahead of the July 4 Independence Day celebrations. "The June US jobs report provoked disappointment and a subsequent sell-off in risk assets," said Mitul Kotecha, an analyst with French bank Calyon. referring to weaker-than-expected unemployment data released on Thursday. Investors bought the dollar after US job losses surged to 467,000 in June, lifting the unemployment rate to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent. The greenback is seen as a relatively safe bet in times of turmoil. The disappointing data suggest "unemployment will continue to rise, creating a mood of distrust over the green shoots of recovery," said Daisuke Uno, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. The jobs report, seen as one of the best indicators of economic momentum, was worse than market forecasts for 365,000 job losses in June. The previous month, the number of layoffs had fallen to 322,000. Adding to the disappointing economic outlook, official EU data showed retailers in the 16 nations using the euro saw their sales fall in May, renewing a slump that was broken in April by a short-lived improvement. The volume of retail sales in the eurozone dipped 0.4 percent in May over one month and 3.3 percent over one year, the Eurostat data agency said. The result wiped out a minor improvement booked in April when retail sales finally rose after months of steady decline, edging up 0.1 percent over one month and reducing the fall over one year to 2.5 percent. The retail report balanced out more optimistic figures from Europe last week that showed business and consumer confidence in the 16-member eurozone jumped to a six-month high in May while German unemployment declined. On Thursday, the European Central Bank kept its main interest rate steady at a record low of 1.0 percent as ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet downplayed the threat of deflation in the eurozone in the face of a fall in prices. In trading here on Friday, the euro was changing hands at 1.3987 dollars against 1.3997 dollars late on Thursday, 134.44 yen (134.30), 0.8573 pounds (0.8538) and 1.5208 Swiss francs (1.5182). The dollar stood at 96.00 yen (95.94) and 1.0860 Swiss francs (1.0844). The pound was at 1.6336 dollars (1.6390). On the London Bullion Market, the price of gold rose to 932.50 dollars an ounce at the fixing from 929.50 dollars an ounce late on Thursday. (AFP)

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Saturday July 4, 2009

ISLAMABAD: The World Bank would provide Pakistan 1.7 billion dollars during current year to help overcome economic recession.

This is Bank's highest ever year-on-year support to the country and is 1.064 billion dollars more than the last year.

The financial support and technical assistance programme is focused on helping Pakistan maintain economic stability, steer the economy back onto a higher growth path and help the government put in place the systems to effectively protect the poor from economic shocks.


(NNI)

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